The Great Resignation May Be a Thing. Here’s What We Really Know.

in business, Data, Featured, Uncategorized, Wellbeing

 

The word "job" going out the doorThe data is starting to support the hype about The Great Resignation.

Don’t be too awed by media reports of “record-breaking” resignations. Record-breaking quit rates were entirely predictable based on their upward trajectory over the last 10 years. What changed was a steep drop in those rates early in the pandemic. Data released today (November 12, 2021) shows a rate (indeed, record-breaking) of 3.0% for September and, yes, this trend looks to be ramping up.

Until now, we’ve known only that there’s been a Great Compression of Resignations — an inordinate amount of resignations in a short period of time. It’s a distinction of little consequence to employers, as they still have the operational hardship of a surge in people heading for the door, regardless of whether it’s a new trend or simply a snapback following the unexpected freefall of resignations that occurred at the outset of the pandemic. Continue reading »

What If The Great Resignation Isn’t?

in business, Data, Featured, Uncategorized

There’s endless talk in HR circles about the Great Resignation. A report by McKinsey & Company, for example, sounds the alarm because “more than 15 million US workers—and counting—have quit their jobs since April 2021, a record pace disrupting businesses everywhere.”

The McKinsey report is fascinating for its survey findings comparing why employees say they leave to why employers believe they leave, with some stark distinctions.

But the report, and just about all of the endless accounts about an employee exodus, falls short by failing to provide context for the so-called exodus. Specifically, they ignore the fact that quit rates plummeted in the Spring of 2020. McKinsey blares, “The Great Attrition is happening—and will probably continue.”

But is it? And will it?

Here’s a graph of quit rates — number of quits as a percent of total employment — from 2011 through July of 2021 (The blue line is turnover; the dotted line is a trend line for the entire period.):

Quit Rates 2011-2021

US Quit Rates (and trend) as % of total employment, 2011-through July 2021.

Pent-Up Attrition?

“Quits are voluntary separations initiated by the employee,” BLS explains. “Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs.”

It sure looks like the current rate of resignation is fairly close to trend. In fact, the quit rate for July 2021 was unchanged from the previous month, and the last three months were all lower than April 2021. The data suggests that some of what’s being called The Great Resignation is actually pent-up attrition. We may — may — just be on the tail end of a dip.

When we hear “15 million workers have quit their jobs since April 2021,” we should question whether April 2021 is the proper baseline. This shouldn’t diminish some of the dynamics currently taking place in the labor force, but at least suggests that it may be quite a while before we really know — based on data — what those dynamics are.

2020’s Trends and Transactions Foretell the Wellness Industry’s Future

in business, Employee Wellness Programs, Uncategorized, Wellbeing

Work-from-home, social connection, telehealth, social justice, mental health… and, of course, the COVID-19 disease itself have been the hot topics of 2020 in the employee wellbeing world.

Meanwhile, the US wellness industry — the business of employee wellbeing — grinds on, with a slew of trends and transactions that foretell its future. Here, I’ve summarized the commercial patterns and milestones that signal which doors are closing and which may open. Continue reading »

Teladoc and Livongo Merge

in business, Uncategorized

Merge Ahead signToday’s big news in the employee health industry is the merger of telemedicine company Teladoc Health and virtual disease management company Livongo. Both have been high flyers in 2020, with their revenues and their stock prices (Livongo just celebrated the one-year anniversary of its IPO and has been a Wall Street darling since then) skyrocketing. Each of the two  companies stock prices are up by more than 100% year-to-date.

Telemedicine has been all the rage among employee benefits directors for at least five years, but utilization remained lackluster until this year, when the COVID-19 pandemic radically accelerated consumer uptake.

Benefits of the merger include “joining two leaders in consumer behavior change,” according to a joint news release.

Speaking of behavior change, both companies’ stocks made it onto the markets’ Biggest Loser list on the day of the merger announcement, with Teladoc down 19% and Livongo off by 11%  —  the second and fourth biggest losers for the day, respectively.

Teladoc Health reaches agreement to buy Livongo in a $18.5 billion deal